Flood risk assessment under population growth and urban land use change in Matola, Mozambique

Abstract

Matola, a major Mozambican city, has witnessed flooding, mainly caused by rainfall. The study aims to produce flood-hazard and flood-risk maps for Matola using the hydrological model TFM-DYN. For 2000, 2020, and 2040, the modeled extent of medium-risk area is 50.6 km 2 (13.7%), 44.8 km 2 (12.2%), and 39.0 km 2 (10.6%) and of high-risk area is 43.3 km 2 (11.8%), 31.8 km 2 (8.6%), and 28.9 km 2 (7.8%), respectively. In 2000, 61,978.4 inhabitants were exposed to medium-risk and 53,036.8 to high-risk. In 2020, 130,628.3 inhabitants were vulnerable to medium-risk and 92,722.8to high-risk. By 2040, 203,999.8 inhabitants will face medium-risk and 151,169.1 high-flood-risk.