Determinantes da oferta de milho no distrito de Mocuba: 1990-2013

Abstract

In order to follow up on the Food Production Action Plan, created under the Green Revolution Strategy underway in Mozambique, whose objective is to eliminate the deficit in the main food products and reduce dependence on imports, the Government points to the District of Mocuba as one of the priorities in the production of corn, with the aim of reinforcing the needs of human consumption, mainly for the southern region of the country, where the deficit is around one hundred thousand tons per year. Data from the district of Mocuba on the agricultural campaigns 2007/08 to 2011/12, indicate that, for the corn crop, in addition to having low levels of productivity compared to its potential yield, there is no trend of growth in the levels of corn. productivity. If there is a need to expand production to meet domestic consumption and the formation of exportable surplus, it becomes evident to proceed with the study of the variables that influence the supply of corn in the district of Mocuba, in order to provide subsidies to government and private actions. The present work aims to identify the determinants of corn supply in the District of Mocuba in the period between 1990 and 2013. To achieve this objective, the econometric method based on regression analysis is used. But concretely, the corn production variable is regressed on the variables corn production, corn price, cassava price, bean price, hybrid corn seed price (Matuba), fertilizer price (NPK), productivity, market risk , rainfall index, production area lagged by one year and trend. The estimation of the model uses data from time series for the period from 1990 to 2013. It is an adaptation of the model developed by Nerlove (1958). The sources of these data are the District Services for Economic Activities of Mocuba, Integrated System of Agricultural Markets, Pro-Campo, Agro Comercial Olinda Fondo, Hydrometry of the district of Mocuba, National Statistics Institute and the Bank of Mozambique. In order to remove the effect of inflation from nominal values observed over time, data on prices are deflated by the general price index measured by the IPC, with the base year 1990. The results of ordinary least squares indicate that, of the variables included in the model, only the variables corn price in the previous year and corn productivity in the previous year were significant. Based on the results, it is concluded that, when the price of corn in the previous year is high, producers increase their production in the following year. It is concluded that when the productivity is higher, the quantities supplied of corn decrease